Summary

Dhaval Joshi argues that AI is not a single bubble but a series of rapid‑fire bubbles popping across sectors – from SaaS to silver to semiconductors – as investors over‑optimistically price in AI value and then quickly correct. The pattern shows software stocks rallying on AI productivity promises before crashing when AI agents threaten SaaS subscriptions; silver spikes on data‑center demand only to fall when the price surge outpaces fundamentals; and chip makers enjoy lofty margins that prove unsustainable as supply catches up. These corrections are extreme in speed and magnitude, indicating a mania‑like contagion rather than normal price discovery.

The broader takeaway is that value capture will shift from firms with genuine moats to superstar individuals or to a highly competitive market that drives prices down for consumers. The rolling sequence creates short‑term “playable” opportunities for nimble investors, but also raises risks of a sudden capital exit if interest rates rise, capex collapses, or a mild recession hits.

Joshi’s view reflects a market where ultra‑low rates and abundant capital have fueled aggressive bets on any perceived AI‑linked upside, only for those bets to over‑extend and correct when expected profit margins fail to materialize. The next wave of inflations – whether in blockchain, quantum hardware, or an unexpected commodity – will test the limits of market complexity and risk appetite.